World population to reach 7 billion in October

3 May 2011

Source: UNESA & UNFPA

UNITED NATIONS, New York - The world's population is projected to reach 7 billion on 31 October 2011, and is likely to reach over 10 billion by 2100, the United Nations announced today. 

A 10 billion world in 2100

These are the findings of the 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects, the official United Nations population projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs released today.

According to the medium variant of the projections, the current world population of close to 7 billion is projected to reach 10.1 billion by the end of the century, reaching 9.3 billion by the middle of this century. This marks a revision of previous projections, with the world's population long having been expected to stablize just above nine billion in the middle of the century. The division also raised its forecast for the year 2050, estimating that the world would likely have 9.3 billion people then, an increase of 156 million over the previous estimate for that year, published in 2008.

Much of the population increase is projected to come from the high-fertility countries, which comprise 39 countries in Africa, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America.

Small variations in fertility produce major long-term differences

The figures above present the medium variant of the projections, which is taken as reference for long-term trends. Yet the high projection variant, whose fertility is just half a child above that in the medium variant, produces a world population of 10.6 billion in 2050 and 15.8 billion in 2100.

The low variant, whose fertility remains half a child below that of the medium, produces a population that reaches 8.1 billion in 2050 and declines towards the second half of this century to reach 6.2 billion in 2100.

Fertility levels vary markedly among countries

Today, 42 per cent of the world’s population lives in low-fertility countries, that is, countries where women are not having enough children to ensure that, on average, each woman is replaced by a daughter who survives to the age of procreation. Another 40 per cent lives in intermediate-fertility countries where each woman is having, on average, between 1 and 1.5 daughters, and the remaining 18 per cent lives in high-fertility countries where the average woman has more than 1.5 daughters.

High-fertility countries are mostly concentrated in Africa (39 out of the 55 countries in the continent have high fertility), but there are also nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America. Low-fertility countries include all countries in Europe except Iceland and Ireland, 19 out of the 51 in Asia, 14 out of the 39 in the Americas, two in Africa (Mauritius and Tunisia) and one in Oceania (Australia).

If the high-fertility countries of today do not achieve the reductions of fertility produced in the medium variant, they may well see their overall population increase four or five fold by the turn of the century, instead of just tripling. Even with the reductions of fertility produced in the medium variant, the population of 34 of the 58 high-fertility countries would triple by 2100.

Population growth in Africa remains so high that according to the medium variant the population of Africa is expected to more than triple by the end of the century, from today's one billion to 3.6 billion.

Increasing life expectancy

Life expectancy is projected to increase in all three groups of countries. Because declining fertility and increasing longevity lead to population ageing, population ageing is fastest in the low-fertility countries, and slowest among the high-fertility countries.

In high fertility countries life expectancy is expected to rise to 77 in 2095-2100, to 82 in intermediate fertility countries and to 86 in low-fertility countries during the same period. Globally, life expectancy is projected to increase from 68 years in 2005-2010 to 81 in 2095-2100.

UNFPA calls for urgent investment in family planning

Responding to the latest UN population projections, UNFPA Executive Director, Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin said;

"the population projections underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it. Small variations in fertility – when multiplied across countries and over time – make a world of difference. We must invest the resources to enable women and men to have the means to exercise their human right to determine the number and spacing of their children."

The projections also remind us that it is vital to create opportunities for young people who constitute a majority in many of the least developed countries where much of the population increases are expected, added Dr. Osotimehin. "When young people can exercise their right to health, education and decent working conditions, they can improve the capacities of their nations to escape poverty," he said.

Dr. Osotimehin noted that the greater longevity projected for all regions, coupled with low fertility in many countries, means that many countries will be confronting the challenge of ageing populations. "We should plan in advance for the health care and social safety nets of the elderly at the same time we support the largest generation ever of youth," he said.

Further information

To access the full population projections dataset, the 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects, the official United Nations population projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs are available on the UN DESA website.

These latest projections echo concerns over population growth and calls for urgent investment in family planning, expressed recently by the UN in the World Demographic Trends report.